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Defence vision EU European Union Foreign policy NATO Security policy EUrope US foreign policy World

The EU now faces a fundamental choice!!

(In het Nederlands)

The EU now faces a fundamental choice..!!

Remain part of Pax Americana in a divided and controlled Europe as the US, UK and supporters want!

Or an autonomous Pax Europaea, of which Ukraine, Belarus and Russia will also become part one day! And what was also Putin’s vision for Russia in Europe. First a free trade zone..

And then towards 2045 a full-fledged EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok..

And together in a reformed, refocused, enlarged and renamed NATO versus Pax Sinica!

As an EU European🇪🇺 Dutchman🇳🇱 I choose for an autonomous Pax EUropaea and an undivided EUropa so!!

To then work as equals together with Pax Americana within a reformed, expanded NATO to deter and curb dictatorial Pax Sinica!!

Just as we did in the Cold War towards the USSR and the Eastern Bloc!!!

For the choice of continuing to be part of Pax Americana will endanger the unity of the EU as well as our security and our prosperity!! After the UK (Brexit), Hungary and Poland may then also leave the EU…

For the inevitable redistribution of prosperity in the world will hurt somewhere in the rich West. The choice of the leader of Pax Americana, the American president, will not be a difficult one then.

source: wikipedia

The EU the chosen victim of that unacceptable to me!! We will have to share that burden and pain together. Gradually and not in jolts..

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ColdWar Core values Defence vision EU European Union Foreign policy NATO Propaganda & Disinformation Security policy EUrope UN US foreign policy World

AN UNDIVIDED EUROPE!!

(In Nederlands)

Update 21-05-2022
– In 2045, NATO will no longer exist. Even though it now thinks to be alive again because of the conflict in Ukraine after the French president Macron recently called NATO brain death…now the EU seems to become brain death after taking a wrong turn. But this is an apparent phase…just like the earlier claimed NATO successes of its missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya and Syria…and so now Ukraine. The organisation took the wrong turn by collaborating with US and UK and their sympathisers in their egocentric nationalistic project against Russia…and the EU(!!). And will, unlike the EU, not be able to come back and recover from that.


I was born during the Cold War, in June 1968. When studying Political science with specialisation in Polemology/War studies it ended. Not good for my future employment, not good at all I discovered later (because world peace had broken out they said) but still I was very happy as I love peace!!

The end of the Cold War meant the end of the Iron Curtain, end of Berlin Wall, end of divided Germany, end of communist authoritarian state USSR, end of a divided Europe!!

But the Cold War was deliberately fired up again in the late 90’s and especially from 2001. By American nationalists in the White House and their pro-Atlantic European allies, especially the EU skeptic UK. In their erroneous nationalistic Bush doctrine focus not alone on Afghanistan and Iraq.

Probably motivated by and against the growing relationship between Russia and EU in the years before, that in their view undermined NATO. So their own influence and strong positions in and via this organisation on the EU and Europe.

Especially towards the EU, ally, but also more and more a geopolitical and geoeconomic competitor of the USA, and now after Brexit the UK. Maybe logical from their strategic interests but very egocentric and not from the interest or good for the EU or even Europe as a whole!!

New iron curtains built in Europe, new tensions, new cold war, large military movements and new cold war language, disinformation and propaganda!!

Unacceptable!! Unacceptable!!

Tragic that also the EU seems to have forgotten the primary lesson of the First World War!! A defeated country (then Germany now USSR>Russia after Cold War) that feels unjustly treated and excluded is more revanchist and thus more dangerous for peace and stability than one you embrace and integrate again (Germany after the Second World War)!!

So I want an undivided European future!! Not a new divided Europe and new Cold War!!

An undivided Europe with an European Defence Union – EDU as part of the reformed European Union EU.

As NATO of today is our past and EDU and a reformed NATO our future!!

With first a solution and peace plan for the cruel war in Eastern Ukraine. That must end before any other step will be taken!!

And justice for the MH17 tragedy and its victims!!

Without that no deal and no end to the economic sanctions for Russia!!

Within this new strategic peace and security structure and vision for Europe and a renewed friendship between the EU and Russia this can culminate in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.. after reforms and as constitutional free democracies(!!).. joining the EU before 2045, when we commemorate and celebrate the end of the horrific Second World War 100 years ago in Europe. Putin will retire from politics in that process. I think he wants that for a long time already. But he can still secure and anchor the treaties and start the changing process as a sign of goodwill and trust in both ways.

And to show and proof that this was always his own desired European vision too. As by offering this inclusive EUropean vision, Russia would not be appeased, but rather put in front of the bloc itself. Do you want Putin’s vision or not? If so, develop and implement a vision, towards an inclusive and undivided Europe. If not, and not for relevant reasons, we know that your intentions are probably not positive.

As also the younger Russian generations feel being part of Europe and want to become part of the EU. As Daria Navalnaya said when she receives the Sakharov Prize, the European Union’s top human rights prize, on behalf of her father.
“…Russia is a part of Europe, and we strive to become a part of it.
But we also want Europe to strive for itself, to those amazing ideas, which are at its core. We strive for a Europe of ideas, the celebration of human rights, democracy and integrity.”
https://euronews.com/my-europe/2021/12/15/navalny-s-daughter-accepts-eu-s-highest-human-rights-award-on-his-behalf

Developments which hopefully the governments of America and UK will support this time and will join. I think in the end also better for them!!

So also Russia, Ukraine and Belarus becoming members of a reformed and refocused NATO this time.

Within a reformed NATO, the Northern Alliance Treaty Organisation, with the same defensive role but a different structure, different focus and with more new member states.

So we can counter and deter the real main threat to our Western and European security, welfare, wellbeing and stability today and tomorrow, revanchist totalitarian communist/Maoist one-party regime and state China!! Which is also a major threat to Russia!!! That is why Russia is so keen on joining the West and the EU!!!

As I find it bizarre that where we have conducted 46 years of Cold War against that other totalitarian communist/Stalinist 1-party dictatorship of former times..the USSR..deliberately(!!) restarted in the 1990’s against a militarily and economically much weaker and still not totalitarian Russia…

..the EUropean and western governments want to stay economic partners and friends with a dictatorial China?! Even after the corona crisis and cultural genocide against the Uyghur minority?! Really that is in my opinion as a child and adult of the Cold War totally bizarre!!

SO IT IS TIME FOR CHANGE!!

TOWARDS AN UNDIVIDED EUROPE AND A REFORMED NATO IN 2045!!


Because in this time of war mongering and mass formation/hysteria and where Mccarthyism seems to have returned and anyone who, like me, has a more balanced view of developments is called a fearsome Putinversteher, or worse, traitor, this disclaimer is unfortunately necessary…



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Defence vision EU European Union Foreign policy Security policy EUrope

One of the main reasons why…

Map-Passages-with-Shipping-RoutesOne of the main EUropean reasons why EU and Russia are becoming friends and allies again one day soon…
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EPDKB8wXsAADjbU(Picture – Former borders Chinese empire)

One of the main Russian reasons why Russia and EU are becoming friends and allies again one day soon…
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“The mineral resources of Siberia are enormous; particularly notable are its deposits of coal, petroleum, natural gas, diamonds, iron ore, and gold.”

A revanchist communist-maoist one-party state with a huge population but a shortage of usable land, looking for a huge amount of usable* land with a small population?! Where did we hear that before in our history?!
(*even more by climate change)

map-articleLarge kopie


So I see great strategic importance for both the EU and Russia to normalize their relationship again in the near future.. under clear conditions.. and even strengthen it further step by step after that.
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And I see one day in the near future NATO forces of the reformed NATO will be stationed and train in Russia near its southern borders to help protect it against threats from this revanchist communist one party authoritarian state China, other countries and/or armed radical groups. Probably in a new cold war setting with China..a cold war that is already started!..but probably even within a real (proxy) war at some places and time.

NATO_2045


But…all this will be not unconditionally!


> There must be a solution for the harsh conflict in Ukraine!
> There must be a new inclusive European Security Architecture with a non-provocative EUropean Defence Union – EDU and doctrine and a reformed NATO!
eu_nato_flags
> Russia’s defence budget mus also stay at a maximum of 2% GDP like the other NATO members (yes, also the USA!)!
> Also the Russian democracy, the rul of law and freedoms will have to be restored and strengthened within the presidential model! putin_russia_015-e1525706003127Putin will finally retire in that process. I think he wants for a long time already. But he can still secure and anchor the treaties and start the changing process as a sign of goodwill and trust in both ways. And to show and proof that this was always his own desired European vision too.


For this Russia is given guarantees for its safety (membership of Nato) and its integrity. With a collective NATO defence structure also including Russia. In my opinion the main concerns of Russia, Jeltsin and Putin since 1999. And Russia gets the prospect of EU/EDU membership before 2045, before we remember and celebrate 100 years after the end of the disastrous World War 2 that destroyed Europe and was the starting point of the Cold War!
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And yes, also president Aleksander Lukashenko of Belarus will leave office under these same conditions. Also Belarus will become member of the reformed NATO. And also Belarus will develop towards a democracy, the rule of law and freedoms for it’s people. And also Belarus gets the prospect of EU/EDU membership before 2045.
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So time for a united undivided and strong Europe within a stronger EU and EDU and a strong but reformed northern alliance NATO!! Both protecting the strategic interests of its Member States in the world.

Creating an area of democracy, the rule of law, freedom, prosperity and well-being. From which it can also assist, support and protect other like-minded countries in the world or those who are moving towards the same core values.1920px-Democracy_Index_2018
(situation democracy today source wikipedia)


But not everybody in- and outside Europe liked and likes this development and more positive European future to happen. Not in 199o’s..not in 2001..not in 2014..and probably not in 2022. As not in their strategic interests! Especially the more egocentric nationalists within those countries. America versus Russia Putin’s vision is a threat to US strategic interests

But do we as EUropeans serve the EU or American and British nationalist strategic interests and their European supporters?! Do we want a again divided or an undivided Europe?!eiscw-lxuaav4ewEIsCxbGWoAEbIUd


So who will win this time?! I hope what is good for us…EUrope! and Europe as a whole! And that in the end the USA and UK (or the new independent states of the former United Kingdom) makes a wiser less egocentric decision than in the past. By supporting these reforms in a answer to the new geopolitical and geoeconomical realities of today and tomorrow. I think also better for both countries!!

So that way we can stay close friends and allies and stay strong(er) together against our common foes and things that threatening and challenge us! And closer to the core values that unite us!!

eu_nato_flags



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ColdWar Conflicts Europe Core values Defence vision EU European Union Foreign policy Security policy EUrope Visions

Strategic Vision European Union – EU 2045


downloadlast updated: 19-07-2022 15:20
– Addition need for EU equivalents for too dominant US and Chinese tech giants. Design updated.
– Supplement on aligned aspects of EU labour market.
– Underline that this is not a federation United States of Europe, as several people, organisations and politicians now want, but a special confederation of EUrope.
– Larger EU Parliament (672) and more (assistent)commissionars (16+48).
– Switzerland became member of EU/EDU before 2045.
– Russia will also become a member of the EU before 2045. Still unthinkable today. But historically important, strategically important, and above all it offers a common European future for the younger Russian generations.

– Exit 2043, now snapshot 2045, 100 years after end of WO2. This is more symbolic of Europe as a whole.



A snapshot of the EU in the year 2045..



Index –



EU 2045 Expansion and Member States

After further expansion the EU consist of 42 EU member states in 2045.
Member States EU 2045
* Kosovo became part of Albania.
** Northern Ireland and Ireland have merged peacefully.
*** Part of Belgium and the Netherlands merged into “The Netherlands” in this alternative vision.
**** Conflict with Russia ended. “>conflict Ukraine with Russia
***** Moldova became part of Romania.

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Enlargement of the EU continued for a while. Brexit saw the UK leave the EU. But Brexit meant also the end of the United Kingdom. Scotland and Wales became independent states and were welcomed back into the EU. England joined the EU later too after a new referendum supported that move. Northern Ireland and Ireland merged. Also the candidate countries in the Balkans.
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The end of the Ukraine conflict meant the relation between Ukraine and Russia and between EU and Russia got better again step by step. A far-reaching cooperation treaty was concluded with both Ukraine and Russia, first becoming primary partners of the EU. EU membership of Russia and Ukraine was realised before 2045, 100 years after the end of the Second World War. So happened with Belarus, Georgia and Armenia. Also Switzerland followed after these positive developments.
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The long-sought Turkish EU membership became no reality because the resistance against it within the EU remained too strong and Turkey itself decided to chose a different course and to strengthen another economic, political and security union, the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). But a far-reaching cooperation treaty between Turkey and EU was concluded.
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EU 2045 In General

Politics and administration
No EUropean presidents, only chairmen/chairwomen of the EUropean Council, the EUropean Commission, the Council of EU, the EUropean Central Bank and the EUropean Parliament. So in the end not a federation United States of Europe, as several wanted and probably still want, but a special confederation of EUrope!!
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The EUropean Parliament is made up of members of existing national parliaments of the EU member states. A parliamentary double mandate: proportional selection of national representatives also sit in the EUropean Parliament. So no more separate EUropean parliamentary elections. Representation changes after national elections. The EUropean Parliament only reside in Brussels and meets several times a year, with each time focusing on a particular policy area or overall EU policy.
European-parliament-vote-plenary
In this alternative strategic vision the parliament is much more decisive than the current EU Parliament (preferable the national parliaments of EU member states too!!). It is the legislature. The EUropean Commission, with sixteen departments with sixteen commissioners and forty-eight assistant commissioners, the executive. The EUropean Council provides advice to Parliament and also has the right of initiative.
In this alternative strategic vision the EUropean Parliament has 672 members, 16 from each of the 42 countries that will form the EU in 2045. With different voting weight for each national delegation. Legislation is drafted, discussed and decided upon in the separate parliamentary committees (minimum 16, 1 per department) with its own independent chairman. This is followed by a plenary vote where all parliamentarians are present and vote. Voting by absolute majority, three-quarters or in a limited number of areas still unanimously.
hemicycle-european-parliament-strasbourg


EU treaties that transfer national competences are only adopted if there is a two-thirds majority in national parliaments. Restraint in relation to far-reaching international free trade agreements. The EU’s core values ​​are absolutely leading in this respect, to strengthen and maintain its own credibility.
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Economy
Remittance to the EU is a fixed percentage of GDP, which is the same for all member states. EU member states that do not comply with rules or budget agreements should be suspended. The EU must budget more transparently and also account for that budget per country.
Capture


The free movement of employees within the European Union has been restricted for some time, work permit needed again. The conditions required for this free movement…such as a more level economic playing field and a common language…were not yet present. Steps in that direction, such as the active equalisation of wages within the EU and the learning of a common language, Euranto, have been taken and are being further strengthened.
eu-freedom-of-movement


As far as the Euro is concerned, the Stability and Growth Pact remain guiding and strictly enforced. Groups of countries within the EU can proceed with further integration than elsewhere in the EU.
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Both financially and with legislation and policy (e.g. protection schemes), equivalents within the EU of the far too dominant American and Chinese tech companies such as Google, Apple, Meta/Facebook/Instagram, Twitter, Amazon, Microsoft, TikTok, Alibaba and their products, browsers or operating systems for computers and mobile phones.
usa-china-guerra-comercial-chips

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Common language
EUrido (modernised version of Esperanto/Ido, which has a high symbolic historic value for Europe in view of its Jewish creator Leyzer Zamengov) has become the EU main language. In addition to the national and regional languages she will be included in the basic package at all (lower) schools within the EU.
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Flag
In addition to the own national flag, the EU flag is showed on government buildings and in Parliaments of the EU member states. This is to strengthen the EUropean identity without neglecting national identity(ies) and certainly not a development towards a United States of Europe. Which I believe is undesirable. 41093730_303

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EU 2045 Security and Defence

No independent EU army is formed but a number of steps made to a very close cooperation and a new security organisation and structure, the European Defence Union (EDU). Similar to the NATO structure (old-style). EDU headquarter in Strasbourg.

Link > Strategic Vision The EUropean Defence Union – EDU
Link > Vision EUropean Defence Union – EDU Forces 2045

europe-de-la-défense-1728x800_c

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Core values Defence vision EU Foreign policy Security policy EUrope

Short EU Security Analysis 2045


Updated 07-09-2022


The possible most important developments and risks for the EU in Europe and the rest of the world up to 2045:


  • I had not anticipated the enormous impact of something like the coronavirus in the analysis. But it can have a major influence on the developments already mentioned here. With all the negative consequences that entails.

coronavirus-4833754_1920


  • I had previously thought that the likelihood of a large-scale armed conflict on the European continent was low. I did consider small-scale hot conflicts, such as was happening in Eastern Ukraine, or the cold wars between Greece and Turkey and between Georgia and Russia, to be possible. Although more cooperation within the EU/EDU and NATO will reduce the likelihood of escalation and increase the chance of solutions. Including and not excluding Russia and Turkey in the policy of the European Union may increase the chances of solutions.I did not want to acknowledge yet that the American and British nationalism of ‘our liberators’ was so vicious and malicious that just after the corona crisis was dampened and ‘block to their leg’ German Chancellor Merkel had left after 16 years, they would accelerate their anti-Russia&EU project since the 1990s by deliberately provoke Russia over its highly strategic red line in Ukraine. And that NATO would fully collaborate and the EU would go along with this…again…after disastrous previous nationalistic projects of the US and UK and their sympathisers in Afghanistan and Iraq. It turned out to be possible and it happened and a nasty proxy war broke out in Ukraine after the Russian attack with…again…disastrous consequences for country, region and world.
    FMYouDVXMAI-IMN
    Although it looks gloomy now and not NATO but the EU becoming brain death is becoming reality now, I keep hoping and also expecting for a radical change within the EU public, media and political opinion in the foreseeable future by the realisation of what is really happened and happening here. Then a peace solution for the conflict in Ukraine will be found. With the main goal of a revival of the European Dream to a larger more autonomous EU with also the reformed(!!) Ukraine, Belarus and Russia as future members before the year 2045. When we celebrate and commemorate the end 100 years ago of the horrific Second World War. With also as a consequence the end of NATO as we know it (contrary to my vision here before) and the arrival of new forms of cooperation next to a again more important UN.

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  • The presence of, and the chance of, conflicts elsewhere in the world, on the other hand, is considerable and is increasing towards 2045. This concerns both conflicts in the low and in the highest spectrum of violence. Both inter-state but more often conflicts within (failed) states. Which can influence developments in a region and indirectly/directly also in Europe.One of the main concerns for Europe is the Middle East and North Africa. Protests of the growing, mostly young and demanding populations against their totalitarian regimes and the growing violence of radical resistent groups against them can implode the region, country by country. Like today in Libya and Syria. Also the very unpopular solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels these protests and feelings of (Arabic/Islamic) humiliation. Being aware of the enormous amount of weapons stored in these countries and the relative weapon and war experienced populations makes that a ticking time bomb south east of the EU. With also a big impact on the rest of already unstable and underdeveloped Africa and the Asian region.

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  • The emergence of new power blocks in the world such as China and India (and to a lesser extent Brazil and Nigeria) entail new security risks in addition to possibilities. Certainly if these countries extend their reach far beyond their own regions. Where India continues to develop as a democracy, and thus remains an important ally for the EU, the communist 1-party dictatorship in China is maintained. Even after opening of the economy during a period of economic globalisation. Staying in power will be the main goal for the regime. Chinese nationalism is also fanned for the benefit of the regime. This makes its policy less predictable and erratic.>

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  • >This can cause a growing threat towards important democratic allies of the EU in Asia and other regions where China looks for more influence. Or looks for (new) natural sources for it’s growing energy needs (Russia’s Siberia?!). As well as impacting the important strategic shipping routes in Asia and other parts of the world. In addition to that the Chinese system and ideology is very contrary to the core values ​​of the EU’s political system and ideology. Growing importance of our own credibility makes it less normal to ignore this. This all is likely to grow into a new major cold war between China (and it’s allies) and western democratic countries (and their allies). In which the US and EU do not always have the same strategic interests or pursue the same way of (re)acting.

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Map-Passages-with-Shipping-Routes


  • The growing dependence on and use of world wide web, digital technologies, mobile communication, Internet of Things, networks, satellites and upcoming artificial intelligence in our daily lives and work enrich but also make us more dependent on them. And so their (deliberate) disruption a growing security threat. Enough time, money, technology and people needed to protect, deter and when needed retaliate against these threats.

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  • Due to the economic inequality in the world, the growing effects of climate change, a still growing world population, the emergence of new power blocks as well as increasing demand for raw materials, food, drinking water and strategic minerals, securing and guarding these strategic resources will become increasingly important for the EU. As well as the transport routes to and from it. Not only in the vicinity of Europe but also elsewhere in the world, such as Asia and the new routes in the Arctic.

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  • The threat of terrorist activities and deadly terror attacks remains and will even grow towards 2045. Both globally and within the EU. Feeding grounds for radicalism stay for the moment or being created by conflicts, their solutions and the growing impact of climate change. Both trying to take away these feeding grounds and creating effective security measures and structures are needed in the long run.

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  • Humanitarian disasters continue to occur regularly in the world. Climate Change will have a growing impact on these developments. Globale awareness and social media create less room to ignore them. They require direct or indirect support and deployment of EU resources and also a growing humanitarian role for the EU/EDU armed forces.

disaster-risk



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ColdWar Conflicts Conflicts Europe European Union Foreign policy Nationalism NATO Propaganda & Disinformation Radicalisation Second World War Security policy EUrope UN US foreign policy War World

Peace Plan War Ukraine


Latest update: 09-09-2022

– The proposed new border also involves the Oskil river.


My original peace plan was from before the ugly and (again) disastrous proxy war in Ukraine broke out. After the in my opinion deliberately provoked high strategic red line of Russia in Ukraine by the nationalistic US&UK governments and their collaborators&sympathisers in NATO and the EU. Unfortunately…and I cannot like this either…Russia, after having put them against the wall one time more, then proceeded to attack Ukraine to maintain that red line. And the horrific proxy war followed has been going on for several months now.

Although the propaganda storyline of the US and UK and their sympathisers is starting to sink through the ice and also perpetrator UK PM Boris Johnson and supporter Australian PM Scott Morrison are exit it is still very unclear when and where the fighting will stop for a first peace attempt by probably French president Macron. Nationalist and primary perpetrator US President Joe Biden and remaining collaborators&sympathisers and too many faithful gullibles seem to want to continue the proxy war for now. Until then, it is difficult to indicate now what a peace plan should look like. Except that this nationalist project MUST fail and both Russia and Belarus besides Ukraine are also part of an European collective future. So working on an adapted version.


My peace plan proposal to end this ugly…now…proxy war in Ukraine in Europe
(Strikethrough are parts of the version before the conflict deliberately escalated…there may be notes on this in italics.)

Ukraine will only become a member of NATO when Belarus and Russia become members of the reformed NATO too. (The already ‘brain death’ NATO…president Macron was right on that…took the wrong turn by supporting again this faulty nationalistic project of the US, UK and its sympathisers after Afghanistan and Iraq. Probably thinking to become relevant again. And in that sense, it will have no future, especially not for EU security, which it turned against with this choice. Unfortunately, it could have been so different if one sees my old peace plan.)

The main point of the peace plan after after the peace settlement in the war in Ukraine and democratic, judicial, economic and military reforms in the countries is the guarantee of EU membership for Ukraine, Russia and Belarus before 2045 (example my vision EU 2045), when we remember and celebrate 100 years after the end of the horrific World War 2 in Europe and the start of the EUropean Dream of a future common and undivided Europa…now brutally disrupted.

Also NATO will be dismantled. The EU will get its own security organisation and structure (example my EDU vision). In addition to the UN, other regional security structures may arise between countries and power blocs in the world.

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The loss of Oblast Crimea will have to be accepted as a consequence of the confusing nationalistic coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the wider anti-Russia and anti-EU policy of that time.

Map_of_the_Crimea

But this and the lifting of severe sanctions against Russia only when the other part of Eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia and by her supported rebels completely returns under Ukraine authority. The Oblasts Luhansk and Donetsk and part of Kharkiv (in west bordered by parts of the Seversky Donets and Oskil river) and parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson (bordered by the Dnipro River) will also fall to Russia. Clear borders that can be monitored and enforced are necessary for the time being after ending the war. So some cities along the Oskil and Dnipro rivers will be divided as a result. These will become cities of peace and may merge again in the future after border corrections when the relations get better after further integration within the EU. UN observers and possibly also UN troops will be stationed along the new borders for a period of time.

Peace Plan

Not the best solution seeing the situation before 2014 and the old peace plan. But after the by the US, UK and sympathisers in NATO and EU deliberately provoked conflict with Russia over it’s strategic red line in Ukraine into an ugly and disastrous proxy war, handing these Ukraine territory back again to Ukraine will unfortunately for sure no longer be an acceptable option for Russia in any peace talks or proposals. Continuing this war to conquer and annex even more Ukraine territory (see map from that article) as is probably its end-goal now, will then be preferred by now deeply embittered Russia.

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So in order to prevent that end-state (in my opinion already accepted by the US and UK and close sympathisers before the provocation) and to end this ugly disastrous proxy war as soon as possible, sadly Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions. In my opinion any suggestion at this stage of this larger conflict of a full return of by Russia occupied and annexed Ukrainian territory to Ukraine is or malicious or totally naive.


Russia must give up it’s direct and also military support…and ending stationing of it’s troops there…to Transnistria. Which in a larger deal with Moldavia and Romania will then become part of Ukraine.

Transnistria_in_Europe_(zoomed).svg


There will no longer be any attempt to identify and punish a primary perpetrator of this grim conflict. In view of the complexity of the conflict and the aim of turning this situation around as soon as possible towards a positive and peaceful development for the countries and their peoples involved towards European unity within a larger EU. In line with the European dream as learnt from the painfully acquired lessons after the devastating and horrific Second World War.
(Peace and reconciliation are more important than justice at this time. Unfortunately, international law has been used so arbitrarily and selectively in recent decades to prosecute and try people that the focus on it now works against rather than helping end conflicts and get peace. Unfortunately for the victims who are also rightly demanding justice. First the system will have to become more structurally balanced.)

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Russia pays compensation to Ukraine for the annexation of the named oblasts and the lose of Ukraine military and civilian assets because of that. This may be in the form of supply of raw materials and other products for a period of time.


Russia will also have to give openness and cooperation to the investigation of the MH17 disaster and it’s legal consequences (paying compensation) and the missile fired on Gori in Georgia in 2008 that killed and wounded several civilians including a Dutch cameraman.

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Without these steps, ample and far-reaching harsh EU and international sanctions against Russia remain in place. There will be still no normalisation of the diplomatic and economic relationship between the EU ,NATO and Russia and both NATO and the EU will continue the process towards NATO and EU membership of only Ukraine.

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Core values Defence vision EU Foreign policy Radicalisation Security policy EUrope

Link unbalanced foreign (economic) policy and radicalization


(In het Nederlands)


It makes you as an open champion of the democratic constitutional state .. with its typical core values … I think totally unbelievable if you are then friends and act with dictatorships, with states and regimes that do not even basically endorse the core values of your own system. Who should have nothing to do with freedoms and human rights, democracy and the rule of law. How sincerely do you (still) believe in it yourself?

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I think that is exactly what many (young) Muslim intellectuals see in the (Western) world. And why more and more of them no longer see democracy and its characteristic constitutional state and freedoms as a serious alternative to the dictatorship in which they live and / or which they want to fight and replace with something more just. To do something about the great poverty, hopelessness, unemployment, injustice and especially corruption in these countries. If Western democracies and politicians demonstrably do not take the core values of their own system seriously, and in addition to this moral also ordinary corruption is so well visible there, these intellectuals will soon suspect them of other agendas. Conspiracy theories are born.

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As communism has lost a lot of popularity as an alternative in the last decades, more and more of them are starting to rely on their faith. And if possible, most pure and basic..in their eyes not corrupting..fundamentalistic form. And these intellectuals drag their less intellectual brothers into this liberation ideology or know how to convert them. Where penance for their sinful Western lifestyle, sexual orientation, criminal activities or hopelessness and disruption often forms an extra incentive for conversion and ambition for struggle and martyrdom.

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If we as Western democratic constitutional states apparently do not even adhere to the core values of our own system and apply them in our foreign (economic) policy … well then trying to get the breeding ground of radical groups such as IS and AQ and other fundamentalist (religious) ideological movements is to try to empty the ocean with a thimble. I think that will not work. And that is what I see happening now. In the West, democracy and freedom are still being preached as the highest and globally valid ideology, while elsewhere it is increasingly seen differently.

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I think Egypt is a good example of all this. Where for decades we saw a dictatorship as a friend and trading partner and treated it as such. There was no question of any positive effect of our raised finger regarding human rights violations and lack of democracy in Egypt. After an Arab spring that was also sudden and “shocking” for the western leaders, they supported for a moment, albeit somewhat uncomfortable and awkward, a democratically elected Morsi government. A moment later … after it was quickly deposed again through an orchestrated “uprising” by the old regime … that never really disappeared, nor wished to surrender its position and wealth in honour and glory of people and democracy … our leaders continued to be friends and trade with this old “new” dictatorial regime.

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A handout picture released by the Egyptian presidency shows Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi, Defence Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Major General Sedki Sobhi leaving after laying wreaths at the tomb of former President Anwa
A handout picture released by the Egyptian presidency shows Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi, Defence Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sissi and Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Major General Sedki Sobhi leaving after laying wreaths at the tomb of former President Anwar al-Sadat and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier during the commemoration of Sinai Liberation Day in Cairo on April 24, 2013. Photo by Tareq Gabas

I find this attitude of the West typical … and I think it is oh so well in the picture of many Muslim youth and intellectuals … and with that a powerful breeding ground for IS and Al Qaeda. Then the Israeli-Palestinian conflict … and the “tolerant” attitude of the West has has not yet been addressed. Or the dictatorial Islamic kingdoms in the Gulf region that are supported by the West and called friends and allies. Or the invasion of states on the basis of manufactured “evidence” (Afghanistan 2001 and Iraq 2003). In the eyes of the radical ideologists, it is no coincidence that these countries lie in the Islamic world. The “proof” for the correctness of one’s own view, ideology and conspiracy theory.

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So anyone who apparently does not take the core values of their own system seriously … among other things in their foreign (economic) policy … should not expect others to see that system as an ideal solution and a leading example for their fight against injustice and corruption that they see in their world and want to change. That if the West is always propagating this is not only unbelievable I think, but it is also becoming laughable. Anyone who finds the democratic constitutional state and its freedoms the ideal solution against injustice in the world will then first have to apply these core values themselves. Also in their foreign (economic) policy!

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ps.1. This is a part of the cause of a more complex issue!
ps.2. I do not see the democratic constitutional state and its freedoms as a superior system that must therefore be introduced throughout the world. I think it’s the best system in which I prefer to live and reside. But others can see that differently.
ps.3. As far as this system is concerned, I am mainly concerned with her credibility to the inside, to us. Is our Western foreign policy credible with regard to the core values of our own western system?! Or hypocritical? And that how outsiders judge that too?



Categories
ColdWar Conflicts Conflicts Europe Defence vision EU European Union Foreign policy Propaganda & Disinformation Security policy EUrope US foreign policy World

America versus Russia – Putin’s vision is a threat to US strategic interests

(In Nederlands)

September 2014. The picture is now becoming clearer. A week ago, the Russian Foreign Ministry tweeted a speech by Lavrov on Twitter. In which Putin’s visionary plan was again mentioned as Russia’s ideal image.*
Putin’s vision published in Der Spiegel International on 25.11.2010 ‘From Lisbon to Vladivostok’ Putin Envisions a Russia-EU Free Trade Zone and reported in the other main international media.
And see also in the Wikipedia “from_Lisbon_to_Vladivostok”

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It lacks a prominent role for the US and Russia focuses explicitly on the European continent. At the same time, the US is trying to get a treaty, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), to get off the ground with the EU (Wikipedia TTIP). Also within a transatlantic visionary vision. Is seriously embarrassed by the revelations of Snowden (who probably did not happen to be accommodated in Russia by accident). Delay and removal between EU and US.

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It becomes clear to me why the US and its pro-Atlantic allies within the EU were so proactive about the internal tensions in the Ukraine, deliberately crossed the red line of Russia, because Putin’s European vision of the future has “died”, and the relationship between the EU and the US is now a whole lot better and NATO survives in its current form. And with that the dominant influence of America on the security and defence policy of its power and especially economic competitor the EU. What European pro-Atlanticists and EU critics also applaud.

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Russia and the US are apparently engaged in a fierce strategic battle over the influence on Europe and for America in particular its economic competitor the EU. Where the use of violence is no longer being avoided. The US seems to be winning that battle now, but at what price? And my question is as to whether the current outcome and this battle is in the strategic interest of the EU itself … of us Europeans. For some time I think the answer is no.

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Addition 2015:
*Merkel saw the vision in 2015 and clearly spoke about it. But saw insufficiently why Russia reacted so allergic to this expansion of the EU, NATO and democracy to the east. Underestimate the (malicious) role and impact of the US and UK and their policies in this..I think.. since 1999 (Kosovo War).
Merkel offers Russia free-trade agreement

Update August 2019:
Macron: “and we believe in a Europe which stretches from Lisbon (Portugal) to Vladivostok (Russia),
And on his Twitter account.

Update March 2022:
It seems that this project of the nationalist US and buddy UK projects of the last two decades, to undermine and definitive bury this vision of Putin and Merkel and Macron a.o. …in fact the European dream from the often painfully learned lessons of our European history…has succeeded in the end, after Merkel left office, the conflict around Ukraine was deliberately stoked up crossing the high strategic Russia’s red line and has now dramatically escalated. And in that process the EU leaders…itself also the very target of this undermining project…gullible and loyal, foolhardy and not having learned anything, have just taken the wrong turn

Update May 2022:
For eight years only?! ya right..🤥🙃🤡
“United States, Canada, Britain…other allies”…
Although, as far as I know, Canada was less actively and ideologically involved in the larger US-UK project and policy against Russia..and the EU. Then more so Australia..
“To get the Ukrainians ready for this kind of war…”
Yes because the US knew this was going to happen one day. Not because the Russians were intended to do so. Putin’s Russia clearly wanted to prevent it. Although they said they would intervene if their red line in Ukraine would be crossed. And that was exactly what the US and UK and sympathisers did in the direction of 24 April. They provoked it to this point..all peace attempts were torpedoed…deliberately so. And there were reasons to do so now

Source

The reality and real developments of the past decades are being ‘leaked’ more and more now. Most of it from loose talk and grandstanding from victory voting. Like John Kirby here…who is also known for that. Though most will miss it here in EU and gullibly think it’s all genuine and sincere what US and UK and their supporters do towards Ukraine and against ‘that evil Putin’s Russia’…
Just like in Afghanistan 2001-2021 and Iraq 2003>…
Incredible…🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Update June 2022
This also the reason why the phone of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande as well as European Commission and German former foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and many others ministers were tapped by the Americans?! With help from pro-Atlantic countries like Denmark and even Germany’s own secret service. Help from secret services, often with a high degree of wilfulness, initiative and collaboration, which we see more often in this dossier. And thereby embarrassing their own government, after which it deal with similar misconduct by allies without much fuss.


And the these days so needed disclaimer