And in 2045 NATO as we know it today will no longer exist!! Even though it now thinks to be alive again because of the conflict in Ukraine after the French president Macron recently called NATO brain death…now the EU seems to become brain death after taking a wrong turn. But this is just an apparent phase…just like the earlier claimed NATO ‘successes’ of its missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya and Syria…and so now Ukraine.
So the EU gets its own EUropean Defence Union – EDU to collectively protect the territories of its member states and their strategic interest in the world.
It will be a hard fight towards 2045. But we as Europeans will win…again…against this bad nationalism!!! The European Dream is not killed today…after we learned these painful lessons in our history… Nor is the European Union – the EU!!!
In these days of…again…”Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” the so needed Disclaimer
So You really think that if tens of thousands of dead and wounded were considered acceptable (“We are so sorry for you loss”) in their projects in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 and 2003 onwards from their nationalist self-centred doctrines…
Project 2 uuhh 1 – After the very painful 9/11 surprise. The Bush administration, which had just taken office, was already busy with Iraq and neglected the clear warnings. While many experts suggested bombing, it became Project 1 of the Bush Doctrine..forced regime change and occupation to bring democracy American Style. Would have welcomed the Afghans just like the Germans and Japanese with open arms.
The Taliban were primitive barbarians, still living in the stone age and as diabolical as their Al Qaeda cronies and their leader Osama Bin Laden! 20 years of American and Western military power, including NATO, just like during the Russian occupation earlier, could not break the Afghan resistance. Also because many more Afghans supported them than was claimed..and really not all of them were forced..but because they did not want democracy and progressive frivolous freedoms (yet). At least not forced upon them by.. (mostly Christian).. foreigners.. again. The Taliban is back in power after a debacle of a retreat..and there are now talks and negotiations with “those barbarians”…
Project 1 uuhh 2 – After the apparently easy and successful start at project 2..uuhh 1.. in Afghanistan.. that would be all right!!..the critics were all wrong!!.. did the Bush administration go after all quickly back to work planning for their original main project of their Bushdoctrine.. forced regime change and occupation of Iraq. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Tony Blair, anti-EU-skeptical(!!), who has become enthusiastic about Afghanistan and (nationalistically) realised the greatness of also his country Great Britain besides his important, god-given, role in the fight of Christian good against evil…Islam uuhh Terror!!… was happy to participate now.
Because that devilish psychopath Saddam Hussein, from ally, to (misled) conqueror in 1990/1991 evil occupation of ally Kuwait!! That had already been severely punished then.. but not finished by father Bush (the dumbass!! because after that almost killed by order of Hussein.. they said). That cruelty troublemaker, defying Americans and their power and allies in the Gulf now really needed to be eliminated. And the Iraqi people, like Germany and Japan in WW2, would be gratefully liberated and propelled in the development of peoples, like the Afghans, under inspiring American-British leadership. Possibly next projects the equally evil regimes in Syria and Iran. Democracy in the region, peace…and ally Israel happy. Could he give the Palestinians something with freedom and rights…or not…also well…Jordan, after all, already the Palestinian state. President Bush, now somewhat less inexperienced, decided after the eventual dramatic development in Iraq and disappointing in Afghanistan to abandon these new projects. His government and policy were therefore changed in the second period.
However, the criticism and protests against this new-old project 1 uuhh 2 were unprecedentedly fierce, large, widely shared… even large groups of former soldiers and politicians wrote protest letters. People warned that a Pandora’s box was about to be opened in the region. But they did not listen in Washington and London and friendly capitals. After all, there was now fait accompli evidence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and, according to Blair, he would be able to fire many missiles at Europe at any moment and in a short time! That this was all self-fabricated evidence and lies many already understood but heard most only later during the investigations after this debacle.
So the green light was given. Supported by many Western and European governments (including actively by the Polish…and politically supported by the Dutch). The once again enormous military build-up in the still friendly Gulf states. Which presence of so many American/western/Christian military in the core country of Islam Saudi Arabia during the Gulf War in 1991 radicalised Osama Bin Laden and made him found Al Qaeda..you know of 9/11 attack and reason for project 2 uuhh 1. Thousands of Iraqi soldiers were literally buried in their trenches or roasted in their tanks.
The Iraqi people, however, did not take to the streets en masse. That was already a worrying omen and had been warned about beforehand. The weapons of mass destruction were not found..despite everything being double-edged. Saddam Hussein, however, was eventually found like a weasel in a hole, his sons having already been killed in battle. Going down fighting is not his thing as a great Arab ruler, but he did go down screaming and cursing on the gallows. Would Bush and Blair have done the same or pissed their trousers? What seemed to be a success soon became a great tragic drama. Pandora’s box had indeed been opened in Iraq and in the region, even in nearby continents and in the world…with consequences also in European streets, cafes and theatres.
So you really think that if tens of thousands of dead and wounded were considered acceptable (“We are so sorry for you loss”) in their projects in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 and 2003 onwards from their nationalist self-centred doctrines…it became hundreds of thousands dead and wounded…
…and millions of displaced people and refugees…also towards the EU, civil wars in Syria and Libya, failed states, the bloody collapse of the Arab democratic spring in Egypt, the rise of IS, genocide Yazidis and many bloody terror attacks in the world…also the EU, even more big-brother-like measures to prevent them, eliminating the IS in bloody battle, flaring up nuclear weapons problems in Iran and North Korea (who felt even more threatened by the forced regime changes and occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq), economic misery, even more loss of credibility in our democratic system and therefore also growth of religious radicalism elsewhere and extremism and conspiracy thinking here, more assertive steps by countries such as China, Turkey and Russia, and so on… and then I probably forgot a lot of things still…
So you really think that if tens of thousands of dead and wounded were considered acceptable (“We are so sorry for you loss”) in their projects in Afghanistan and Iraq from 2001 and 2003 onwards from their nationalist self-centred doctrines…it became hundreds of thousands dead and wounded and millions of displaced people and refugees…that those few thousand dead and wounded Ukrainians and Russians and tens of thousands…already millions of…displaced and fleeing Ukrainians, the still nationalistic American and British governments Biden and Johnson and their supporters in NATO and here in Europe would stop this time and really care so much?! Now within this still ongoing primary US-UK project (that already started late 1990’s and was accelerated by US Bush and UK Blair administrations from 2001’s) of their still egocentric nationalistic doctrines and projects (like recently AUKUS).
Those who did keep a more broader objective view then and now understood what happened…and what the main cause was then and still is now…learned the lessons from Europe’s own war-rich history and also from these recent projects, would never follow our EU leaders decision so supportive and gullibly into another (proxy)war as has happened now…again…
NATO and EU vs Disinfo like to brag about their ability to distinguish between ❌MYTH and ✅FACT and thus to be able to unmask a lot of disinformation, especially from Russia, their obsession. But they regularly make mistakes themselves, with probably their own deliberate propaganda and disinformation. Two examples.
People who have no knowledge and understanding of this aspect will say…right!!! And yes, in factual it is correct.. in terms of only boundaries on land. But anyone who has knowledge and understanding of this aspect and war fighting and does not allow themselves to be tricked or consciously participate in this form of NATO’s and EU’s own propaganda and disinformation knows that the overall proposition of NATO and EU vs Disinfo is nonsense. And the Russians are simply right in this matter.
First the map shown. Probably deliberately in 2D. Not in 3D and as a globe!! Which already makes the image quite different!! Especially if you know that modern warfare is of course much more than just only over land. Also by sea, air, digital and also space.
Already a different picture!! But it still leaves much of the Russian claim of NATO “encirclement” open. Therefore it is important to look at the capacities and bases of the NATO member states themselves. Because in the event of a conflict or even war, operations will, of course, not only be carried out from the European part of NATO territory. Especially the capacities of the still undisputed and dominant NATO leader USA come into the picture. It is not for nothing that Russia focuses on America in its accusations in this matter.
And that also changes the “innocent” picture painted by NATO and EU vs Disinfo. The US has bases all over the world. Including large bases with strategic bombers. In the Middle East and the Indian Ocean and also in Asia… so on the Asian side of Russia. Before the withdrawal and collapse of the Afghanistan mission, the US was also able to position and deploy air forces there. Also think of the multiple operational carrier strike groups (10 total) with entire air forces on board. Which can operate from any position at sea around Russia. And the Marines units and air assets on several operational large amphibious ready groups (10 total). Also large US Marines bases and very mobile units and their huge amphibious ships in Japan and South Korea. Besides very capable and well supported Airborne divisions with huge air transport capabilities. Russia also has not forgotten the use of American troops and landings in Siberia, among other places, during the Russian revolution, in support of the White Army’s.
So we can now conclude that what the Russians claim looks more like a ✅FACT and what NATO and EU vs Disinfo claim is the ❌MYTH
But very adept at also using propaganda and disinformation…even if looks like a belief almost…one really seems to believe it oneself…both will argue that NATO is a defensive organisation and therefore no danger to Russia!!
Yes, fundamentally and according to its treaty text and mission, NATO is a defensive organisation. But we already saw another side of NATO in the Kosovo War as well as the intervention in the civil wars in Bosnia and Libya. An obviously offensive side..
And another aspect is less obvious but very relevant in this case. In 2001 and 2003, the US and its allies UK, Australia and in 2003 also Poland, decided to proceed with, in the first instance, illegal forced regime changes and invasion and occupation of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003). This choice came from the newly introduced neocons nationalist Bush Doctrine in 2000 when President GW Bush took office.
The horrific attack on 9/11 did prompt action against Afghanistan and Al Qaeda bases there, but a forced regime change and occupation was only an option, not a foregone conclusion!! So criticism of these steps was widespread and sharp, especially case of the attack on Iraq in 2003. What the Bush administration was already so almost obsessed about in 2001 that they did not take the serious warnings of a major terror attack in America seriously and mostly ignored them. An important reason why they covered up their part in the investigations into 9/11 afterwards..which in turn fuelled the conspiracy theories.
Back to the NATO role. What happened in both Afghanistan and Iraq was that after the invasion, forced regime change and occupation, NATO took over some of the main tasks and operations of the multinational military occupation forces. An in itself defensive organisation (already weakened by Bosnia, Kosovo and Libya) thus became an extension and justifier of the flawed offensive operations by its leader US and member state UK and other NATO Member States.
This was followed by .. both Bush Doctrine projects and missions turned out to have disastrous consequences for both countries Afghanistan and Iraq, their populations (massive death, wounded, destruction, refugees flows), the region (incl. huge refugee flows, civil wars Libya and Syria, rise of IS, nuclear weapons program Iran) and other parts of the world (refugees flows, migration stress, terror attacks, lose of own credibility by support and things like Guantanamo bay, huge and expensive but highly disputed security programs, etc. ).. NATO still actively participating in the fight against the emerged Islamic State.
So it is clear that there are some critical comments to be made about NATO’s defensive nature. And that the statement of NATO and EU vs disinfo that NATO is a defensive organisation so not threat to Russia is much more ❌MYTH than ✅FACT.
But why, besides Iran and North Korea and other countries that fear the wrath of the US, is Russia so concerned about it, about NATO’s as threat? Because there is another important, but often forgotten, project of the Bush Doctrine. Containing and weakening the power competitors of the US as the world leader and only real superpower, of its Pax Americana. A sentiment widely shared in both the Democratic and Republican Party. Where the normally already strong patriotism with the challenges in America itself, society..poverty..radicalism..poor infrastructure..and also effect 9/11..and in the world after the end of the Cold War is increasingly turning into nationalism. Already during the Clinton administration after an internal clash of doctrines (with negative effects on the Bosnian War!!), certainly under that of neocons GW Bush and “America First” Trump, but also that of “Made in America” Obama and now Biden. Who speak grand, together and unctuous, but think more nationalistically and in power politics then most think here in EUrope.
So part of that other Bush Doctrine project was to further contain and weaken former (but still seen by many in Washington as) enemy Russia. Already started during the Clinton administration towards Russian interests in the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo war). Which was for President Yeltsin and his later Prime Minister Putin already cause for anger and growing mistrust towards US and allies. With the GW Bush administration focus on the important passage for Russia to the Near and Middle East. In Eastern Europe (large NATO expansion and active influencing politics and developments in Ukraine). And towards (highly) strategic interests and bases of Russia in other parts of the world (Libya, Syria, Africa, Asia, South America). Consciously looking for and crossing red lines of then Putin’s Russia.
Another component was to cost Russia through a restarted arms race and thus be able to spend less on domestic needs and projects. And consciously helping to stir up any unrest among the peoples and population in the Russian states and provinces. In the hope that they would also secede from Russia and thus Russia itself would further disintegrate and weaken… as a competitor of the US. Then pro-Western new countries of former Russia, which recognise the US as leader, can become part of Pax Americana and the EU. Putin or no Putin, democracy or no democracy in today’s united Russia therefore makes no difference at all to the conflict now!!
This within a broader strategy that was..and still is(!!)..also aimed at an ally, but also an important power and economic competitor of the US, the EU. Where the US still had and has direct control via NATO over EU’s security and military structures and policies, and thus its possibilities in its foreign economic policy. To offer security guarantees to its allies or to protect and enforce the EU’s possessions and strategic interests in other parts of the world, like in the Indo-Pacific. Almost unthinkable in today’s geopolitical times. An economic superpower like the EU that cannot protect its own interests but leaves that to an important competitor!! As if Apple has its buildings guarded by Samsung, although they often work together. This dominance of the US over EU had to be maintained…something that both Republicans and Democrats agreed and agree on, yes, even Trump…
And that was threatened by the rapidly expanding EU-Russia relationship and trade in the 1990s. With both Russian President Putin and his EU colleagues already and even later on projecting visions of even more close cooperation and integration between EU and Russia. Putin’s proposed and by Merkel later also offered free trade area from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Probably developing into a even larger EU one day. This would make the EU increasingly autonomous of the US, also militarily…and…in a sense let Russia win the Cold War in the end…politicians and military thought in Washington.
So..not to elaborate too much..to sum up. NATO is certainly, through its leader USA, circling Russia and the US and allies threatening and have a goal to weakening Russia. From their strategic reasons or naive credulity. And keep Russia in the camp of dictatorial superpower China..create a simple good vs bad bipolair world order. While Russia is in reality fearing China and the threat China is to her sparsely populated but rich in land and resources Siberia. Especially now that, due to climate change, unusable land is quickly becoming usable. In absence of enough of this, the Chinese regime is looking for “lebensraum” for its huge population, who demands more welfare and welbeing. Where do we recognise that term as Europeans?! That is why Putin is appeasing the revanchist communist/maoist one party Chinese regime but also still so eager to belong to the West and rejoin the EU…and even NATO.
Something that also plays a role today in the conflict with Russia over Ukraine, for the reasons I described earlier, deliberately stirred up by the US, UK, NATO and their allies..but in fact is about much more..
And in that context NATO is not a defensive organization either. Although there are important member states that are more defensive than others. And dampen overly offensive NATO operations, something the US and UK would like to see happen and encourage. Merkel was particularly strong in this. But it just left. So it’s no surprise that her successor Scholz was immediately put to the test by the US and UK around Russia and Ukraine.
In conclusion, and in view of current events, my appeal to Europeans to go above all for an inclusive, undivided EUrope towards 2045. When we celebrate and commemorate that the horrific Second World War ended. Unfortunately, many politicians, soldiers, journalists and think-tanks have apparently already forgotten the lessons from that war.