Latest Update: 09-06-2022 – Adding reaction on EU vision Strategic Compass.
In continuation of my earlier post, I think the reasons why the US and the UK and their sympathisers in NATO and the EU escalated the already long-running (from end ’90s) conflict with Russia (and thus also the EU!!) this time through deliberate provocations to eventually Russia’s heavy-handed intervention in Ukraine to maintain its red line that has been indicated and warned about so often…
Departure of ‘block to their leg’ now Germany’s former chancellor Merkel.
To quash the just presented EU vision ‘Strategic Compass’ to strive for more EU autonomy in security and defence (also in reaction on previous period of US president Trump). Which threatens and would diminish the power and influence of the US over power and economic competitor the EU through its leadership role in NATO.
Biden’s advanced age and thus chance of death..then his mission not accomplished and in jeopardy.
Diverting attention from the then strongly resurgent internal problems, scandals (e.g. Partygate) and disappointing policies or realisation of own core plans and polls for Biden in US and Johnson in UK.
….What I have forgotten or don’t know yet……
Do people here in the EU really think that the US, which sees the EU as a primary power and economic competitor, and Brexit UK…need I say more…and their mostly anti-EU-sceptical sympathisers within NATO and the EU itself…that they now serve and have in mind the (strategic) interests of us the EU in the tragic conflict with Russia and the grim proxy war in Ukraine?!!! Do they really think so here?! Do you really think so?!
I wonder how and how intensely US and UK and supporters in brain death EU are going to undermine the re-election of French President Macron. As punishment for his support for Merkel and their inclusive solution to the conflict with Russia and his peace efforts after her departure.🤔
I can’t imagine that the grudging president Biden…still sensitive to what he quickly sees as bullying against himself…has forgiven Macron this and his ‘choosing his chickens’ recently has earned enough new credit. AUKUS already not a good sign. Also fellow nationalist PM Johnson is downright resentful…
The ‘yellow jacket’ protests…which were at the time not always spontaneous in my opinion…may get a more grim sequel…
So painful!! So sad when I see the pictures of the fighting, dead and wounded and distraught civilians!! My heart breaks..
But this could have been avoided!! Because if the EU neglects to offer an inclusive European solution… because that is not what the US, UK and NATO want…at all costs…who also torpedoed all of Macron’s attempts…and too many too loyal EU leaders accept and support that, then it is their own fault, and besides also the end of our EUropean dream!! Those who do not want to listen have to…unfortunately…but feel…
The Russian attack I also hoped would not happen. I am an optimist and I strive for peace!! I really could not imagine that our EU leaders would play it up so much that it would come to this. That is why I always said it would not happen. The price for Russia was too high. But apparently that moment had already arrived. But I did take it into account and also warned a number of times, very cynically, that if people wanted war so badly, they would get it..
And no, of course the Americans did not know that it would actually happen and when exactly!! If they had known exactly, they would have revealed that they had a spy at the highest Russian level. Because such a decision is taken at the very highest level. By Putin and a small team. And that would mean that the Americans themselves would unmask the existence of such an important spy. And that is not what they are doing. They were adamant about an attack on 16 February but that turned out to be false.
But suggesting this attack and giving dates for it was part of their deliberate anti-Russian propaganda and disinformation campaign (and, as I have often said, anti-EU!). After all, they did not want to offer an inclusive European security solution and vision, which is precisely what Russia was asking for. So the conflict had to be stoked up so that it did not come to that because people here thought that everything was caused by that evil Putin…
Only the French President Macron, unfortunately now without the very experienced and highly influential German (former) Chancellor Merkel next to him…. the conflict was not accidentally stoked around and after the departure of for America’s “block on the leg” Merkel by the US, UK, NATO and their supporters here in the EU. still tried to move in that direction. The newly appointed Chancellor Scholz followed him for a while, but was still too inexperienced and inadequately prepared, and with his new ambitious government, especially the fierce new Foreign Minister Baerbock, too susceptible to heavy American pressure.
Macron’s it seems inclusive European proposal was thus deliberately undermined and peremptorily rejected by the US, UK, NATO and their supporters within the EU and so Putin too had insufficient faith in it. Even though it was what he was asking for. Macron had understood the latter well. Macron then cut his losses in view of the upcoming presidential elections in France. To antagonise the Americans could prove to be very disadvantageous. The US is still very powerful within the EU.
The cynical thing is that by offering that, Russia would not be appeased, but rather put in front of the bloc itself. Do you want Putin’s vision or not? If so, develop and implement a vision, towards an inclusive and undivided Europe. If not, and not for relevant reasons, we know that your intentions are probably not positive. That is also why I am completely convinced that the US, UK, NATO and their supporters in the EU absolutely did not want this. Also without Putin. Not even if Russia had been a democracy.
And so, unfortunately, Russia decided to attack Ukraine after all. My first impression is that Russia is carrying out the same punishment and dismantling expedition as we saw in 2008 with the then totally irresponsible military attack, also triggered by the anti-Russian support and incitement of the US administration GW Bush at the time, of Georgian President Saakashvili on the Russian-backed separatists in the occupied territories in Georgia.
A kind of scenario that Russia also feared in the conflict with Ukraine in recent weeks. A Ukrainian President Zelensky with great political and especially economic problems, corona pandemic and tensions in Ukraine itself. Including a power struggle with competitors for the next round of presidential elections, especially former president Poroshenko. So circumstances for military adventurism as a distraction. So Russia significantly reinforced its forces on the Ukrainian border and in Crimea. Also in Belarus.
The Ukrainian attack did (for that reason?) not materialise but the presence of so many troops… not enough for a full-fledged invasion and occupation most experts explained by the way… also offered other scenarios and options for Putin and team. The outspoken rejection of an inclusive European solution and vision by the US, UK, NATO and supporters in the EU made Russia intervene to probably obtain a stronger negotiating position in the next round of negotiations that will surely come. Then Putin and his team are hard and unforgiving.
President Macron is and remains active in this. Peace and a solution are still possible, but now there is an alternative if an inclusive European peace proposal is rejected again by the countries involved. And the US, UK and NATO and their supporters in the EU will certainly do so again. Then the starting point is now more in Russia’s security advantage. That sacrifice is apparently worth it to Putin and regime. I wrote before that they were really done with it!